Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Nazare da Costa Cabral Author-Name-First: Nazare Author-Name-Last: Cabral Author-Name: Noemia Goulart Author-Name-First: Noemia Author-Name-Last: Goulart Title: The Social Security Financial Stabilisation Fund Abstract: The Social Security Financial Stabilisation Fund (FEFSS) is a crucial instrument for the sustainability of the Portuguese Social Security system. This study provides an in-depth analysis of the FEFSS, with the aim of clarifying its nature and goals by comparing its distinctive features with other national and international funds. Understanding the evolution of Portuguese state's main financial reserve necessarily involves analysing the evolution of its financing sources and the investment policy adopted over time to promote financial return and assessing how these have accompanied the structural changes that have taken place in the social security system. The analysis highlights the important role that FEFSS plays as a Government lender and in the public assets management, through various interactions that have impact on public accounts. The study also addresses aspects related to the fund's governance, considering good practices and highlighting the importance of strengthening transparent and professional management. From this analysis, the authors conclude that there is a need to reform and strengthen the FEFSS legal regime, applicable both in the accumulation and phasing out and, especially with regard to the latter, the need to set explicit conditions for the use of the fund, preventing discretion and (bad) arbitrariness. Length: 118 pages Creation-Date: 2024-03 File-URL: https://www.cfp.pt/en/publications/other-publications/the-social-security-financial-stabilisation-fund File-Format: text/html File-Function: First version, 2024 Number: 02/2024 Classification-JEL: G01; G11; G20; H55; H63 Keywords: fundos de reserva, FEFSS, sustentabilidade, política de investimento, capitalização, rentabilidade, repressão financeira, pensões Note: This publication is only available in Portuguese. Handle: RePEc:alf:opaper:2024-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Amilcar Sousa Author-Name-First: Amilcar Author-Name-Last: Sousa Author-Name: Rui Dias Author-Name-First: Rui Author-Name-Last: Dias Title: State of implementation of the RRP reforms Abstract: The aim of this paper is to characterize the state of implementation of the reforms set out in Portugal’s Recovery and Resilience Programme (RRP), approved in July 2021. The PRR is a financing mechanism based on performance and the verification of results achieved: before each disbursement, the European Commission assesses compliance with the objectives (milestones and targets) associated with the measures (reforms and investments) relating to each disbursement request. This initial RRP of Portugal was organised in 20 thematic components, which were grouped into three structuring dimensions (Resilience, Climatic Transition and Digital Transition), and provided for the disbursement of €16.6 billion subject to compliance with 115 measures, including 32 reforms (which have 57 associated objectives, of which more than four fifths are measured through qualitative indicators). Based on the compilation of the available information on the implementation of the RRP reforms, prior to its reprogramming, we conclude that the execution rate of the objectives associated with those reforms was of 65% in the end of December 2023. This rate rises to 84 per cent if we only consider the objectives that should have been completed by the end of that year. Regarding these latter objectives, seven were yet to be finalised, including the three objectives that the European Commission, in its preliminary assessment of the 3rd and 4th payment requests, considered to be unfinished, which led to the partial suspension of RRP funds to Portugal. Although the focus of this analysis is the initial RRP, we also give note of the updated Portuguese RRP, approved in October 2023, following which the number of components, measures and objectives was revised upwards, while total financing increased to €22.2 billion. Length: 81 pages Creation-Date: 2024-02 File-URL: https://www.cfp.pt/en/publications/other-publications/state-of-implementation-of-the-rrp-reforms File-Format: text/html File-Function: First version, 2024 Number: 01/2024 Classification-JEL: H27; H59; H83 Keywords: Plano de Recuperação e Resiliência, Portugal; Financiamento europeu Note: This publication is only available in Portuguese. Handle: RePEc:alf:opaper:2024-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Noemia Goulart Author-Name-First: Noemia Author-Name-Last: Goulart Author-Name: Rui Dias Author-Name-First: Rui Author-Name-Last: Dias Title: State Budget and the Sustainable Development Goals: an opportunity for better budgeting? Abstract: The United Nations General Assembly adopted the 2030 Agenda, which unites the efforts of all countries to achieve sustainable development by that year with 17 development areas and an equal number of universal objectives - the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Implementing the necessary public policies in this regard requires instruments such as the national budget to take these goals into account. Budgeting for the SDGs (B4SDG) has thus emerged as an instrument for better budgeting, promoting the incorporation of these goals systematically and across the board in government decisionmaking. This text presents the state of the art about the implementation of budgeting for the SDGs and its framework in the budgetary process in Portugal, and the information available on the realisation of the SDG targets. Length: 14 pages Creation-Date: 2023-11 File-URL: https://www.cfp.pt/en/publications/other-publications/state-budget-and-the-sustainable-development-goals-an-opportunity-for-better-budgeting File-Format: text/html File-Function: First version, 2023 Number: 02/2023 Classification-JEL: H59; H61; Q01 Keywords: Sustainable Development Goals, Programme budgeting; 2030 Agenda Note: This publication is only available in Portuguese. Handle: RePEc:alf:opaper:2023-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Nazare da Costa Cabral Author-Name-First: Nazare Author-Name-Last: Cabral Title: The New European Fiscal Framework: ruling out Fiscal Policies or what else? Abstract: In this paper I discuss whether the replacement of a ‘rule-based system’ relying on common quantitative benchmarks, as is the case with the current Stability and Growth Pact framework, by a ‘standard-based model’, the model underlying the proposal for a revised Fiscal Framework presented by the Commission, has managed, on the one hand, to overcome the previous criticisms made of SGP’s main legal elements (its ‘preventive’ and ‘corrective’ arms) and, on the other, to verify whether this proposal risks ‘ruling out’ Member State fiscal policies with its intended ‘national ownership’ goal and new flexibility devices. Using insights from political economy, I address this latter point in the light of four contraposing perspectives: firstly, fiscal rules versus fiscal standards (or rules versus discretion); secondly, centralization versus decentralization of budgetary restraints; thirdly, accepting or not accepting Independent Fiscal Institutions; finally, procyclicality versus anti-cyclicality of fiscal policies in the presence of budgetary restraints. Length: 33 pages Creation-Date: 2023-10 File-URL: https://www.cfp.pt/en/publications/other-publications/the-new-european-fiscal-framework-ruling-out-fiscal-policies-or-what-else File-Format: text/html File-Function: First version, 2023 Number: 01/2023 Classification-JEL: E6; F02; H50; H6 Keywords: Fiscal Framework; Fiscal Rules; Independent Fiscal Institutions; Fiscal Policy; Macroeconomic Stabilization Handle: RePEc:alf:opaper:2023-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Amilcar Sousa Author-Name-First: Amilcar Author-Name-Last: Sousa Author-Name: Ana Pinheiro Author-Name-First: Ana Author-Name-Last: Pinheiro Author-Name: Francisco Ruano Author-Name-First: Francisco Author-Name-Last: Ruano Title: O Orçamento Verde Abstract: Os efeitos nocivos resultantes das alterações climáticas levaram a uma maior consciencialização ambiental e ao estabelecimento de diversos compromissos internacionais. É neste contexto que o Orçamento Verde, uma prática relativamente recente adotada por um número crescente de governos, tem vindo a ganhar importância. Ao possibilitar uma maior perceção dos contributos ambientais de cada rubrica orçamental, o Orçamento Verde permite alinhar a política orçamental com os objetivos climáticos e ambientais, podendo ainda abrir o caminho para a emissão de obrigações verdes. Uma efetiva implementação do Orçamento Verde implica a adoção de instrumentos adequados (como a classificação da despesa e da receita em termos dos seus impactos climáticos e ambientais, conhecida por Green Budget Tagging), o estabelecimento de um enquadramento institucional apropriado e o tempestivo reporte de informação. Os países com experiências mais consolidadas nesta matéria são França e Itália. Portugal já deu alguns passos para a implementação de um Orçamento Verde, mas ainda tem um amplo caminho a percorrer, nomeadamente, quanto à adoção de um conjunto de instrumentos ainda em falta, quanto ao estabelecimento de um enquadramento institucional onde este tipo de prática esteja contemplado na Lei de Enquadramento Orçamental e quanto à criação de um sistema de reporte de informação que promova a transparência de todo o processo orçamental verde. Length: 42 pages Creation-Date: 2022-09 File-URL: https://www.cfp.pt/en/publications/other-publications/the-green-budget File-Format: text/html File-Function: First version, 2022 Number: 04/2022 Classification-JEL: H50; H61; Q51; Q58 Keywords: Orçamento Verde; Green Tagging; Orçamento do Estado; Obrigações Verdes Note: This publication is only available in Portuguese. Handle: RePEc:alf:opaper:2022-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Erica Marujo Author-Name-First: Erica Author-Name-Last: Marujo Author-Name: Nuno Goncalves Author-Name-First: Nuno Author-Name-Last: Goncalves Author-Name: Rui Dias Author-Name-First: Rui Author-Name-Last: Dias Title: Climate change: macro-fiscal risks and challenges Abstract: The response to climate change will demand profound transformations in social and economic systems, requiring significant investments from both the public budget and the private sector. This occasional paper contextualizes the issue of climate change in the Portuguese economy and analyses its effects on public finances. This document explains the main concepts underlying climate change and analyses the main theoretical transmission channels to the economy. The empirical evidence for Portugal regarding this issue is reviewed and the policies and financial instruments already adopted in the country to ensure the decarbonization of the economy until 2050 are surveyed. A detailed analysis of the financial dimension of the climate action for Portugal is presented, aiming to clarify the financing strategy of the country to reach carbon neutrality and the allocation of the financial effort to be executed between the public and the private sectors. This study concludes that, in Portugal, despite the approval of several climate action plans, there is a clear need for better articulation between the multiple instruments and to develop their financial dimension in order to ensure greater transparency of the inherent processes and to secure the achievement of the agreed targets. The impact of climate change over the economic growth and other dimensions of the society will be greater the less action taken by policy makers to adopt mitigation and adaptation measures that fulfil the goals of the Paris Agreement. Length: 84 pages Creation-Date: 2022-05 File-URL: https://www.cfp.pt/en/publications/other-publications/climate-change-macro-fiscal-risks-and-challenges File-Format: text/html File-Function: First version, 2022 Number: 03/2022 Classification-JEL: E60; H23; O44; Q51; Q54; Q58 Keywords: Climate change; macroeconomic impacts; decarbonization; public investment; public financing; budgetary impact Note: This publication is only available in Portuguese. Handle: RePEc:alf:opaper:2022-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Nuno Goncalves Author-Name-First: Nuno Author-Name-Last: Goncalves Title: Most probable or more prudent? Analysing CFP's macroeconomic projections, 2015-2019 Abstract: The CFP macroeconomic projections provide an independent contribute for the public debate on economic developments and fiscal policy in Portugal. They are an important input for the endorsement of macroeconomic forecasts underlying budgetary programming documents. According to the Law, these must be based on the most likely macro scenario or on a more prudent scenario. Naturally, the CFP projections are also following the same principles, and so it is crucial to assess whether they are the "most probable" or "more prudent". This paper makes a first study of CFP macroeconomic projections regarding forecasting performance and its optimality properties. In general, the results suggest that CFP projections are prudent and fulfil most optimality conditions, proving to be a reliable contribute to policy debate. The findings also show that CFP projection errors are also in line with those of other institutions that develop scenarios under the no policy change assumption. Length: 27 pages Creation-Date: 2022-04 File-URL: https://www.cfp.pt/en/publications/other-publications/most-probable-or-more-prudent-analyzing-cfps-macroeconomic-projections-2015-2019 File-Format: text/html File-Function: First version, 2022 Number: 02/2022 Classification-JEL: C53; E37; E60; E66 Keywords: Macroeconomic forecasts; forecast performance and evaluation; Portugal Handle: RePEc:alf:opaper:2022-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Nazare da Costa Cabral Author-Name-First: Nazare Author-Name-Last: Cabral Author-Name: Carlos Fonseca Marinheiro Author-Name-First: Carlos Author-Name-Last: Marinheiro Title: Regional Administration: Fiscal Framework Abstract: This paper addresses the budgetary framework of the Portuguese autonomous regions, analysing its consistency with the General Government budgetary framework. The Constitution of the Portuguese Republic grants high financial autonomy to the two autonomous regions of Azores and Madeira, and such autonomy should be reflected in high fiscal responsibility. It is concluded that the numerical fiscal rules applicable to the regions are quite different from those applicable to the General Government, arguing that the former should be closer to the national rules, with the necessary adaptations, considering that the economic stabilisation function is mostly performed by the national budget. Ways of approximation are suggested in compliance with the general principle of mutual solidarity established in the Budgetary Framework Law. However, the specificity and the complexity of designing fiscal rules for sub-national entities recommend a thorough technical preparatory work that precedes the indispensable political discussion. It is also concluded that the Autonomous Regions' Finance Law lacks the specific norms that define the role of the Portuguese Public Finance Council as the entity responsible for giving an opinion on the compliance with the planned budgetary discipline rules. This contradicts national and European legislation provisions, which give this independent body the task of monitoring compliance with numerical fiscal rules. Length: 25 pages Creation-Date: 2022-01 File-URL: https://www.cfp.pt/en/publications/other-publications/regional-administration-fiscal-framework File-Format: text/html File-Function: First version, 2022 Number: 01/2022 Classification-JEL: H74; H77; E62; H6 Keywords: Fiscal rules; sub-national governments; Fiscal federalism; Independent Fiscal Institutions; Portugal Note: This publication is only available in Portuguese. Handle: RePEc:alf:opaper:2022-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Paul de Grauwe Author-Name-First: Paul Author-Name-Last: de Grauwe Title: Portugal’s fiscal policy choices during the pandemic: a preliminary evaluation Abstract: In this paper I document the fact that, compared to the other EU-countries, the Portuguese government made relatively cautious budgetary policy choices during the pandemic. Most EU-countries decided to take more expansionary budgetary stances than Portugal. I also find empirical evidence suggesting that countries that used more fiscal stimulus managed to reduce the negative effects of the pandemic on GDP. This raises the question of whether the Portuguese government made the right fiscal policy choice during the pandemic. I argue that other factors than the budgetary policy stance matter in explaining growth performances. In addition, it is probably too early to tell whether the Portuguese government made the right fiscal policy choices. Length: 14 pages Creation-Date: 2021-05 File-URL: https://www.cfp.pt/en/publications/other-publications/portugals-fiscal-policy-choices-during-the-pandemic-a-preliminary-evaluation File-Format: text/html File-Function: First version, 2021 Number: 01/2021 Classification-JEL: E60; E62; E65 Keywords: pandemic, fiscal policies, fiscal stance, policy choice Handle: RePEc:alf:opaper:2021-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Carlos Fonseca Marinheiro Author-Name-First: Carlos Author-Name-Last: Marinheiro Title: The Expenditure Benchmark: complex and unsuitable for Independent Fiscal Institutions Abstract: The Expenditure Benchmark (EB) is an indicator for the evolution of public expenditure, introduced in 2011 in the already complex European fiscal rules framework. Its application has been increasingly promoted by the European Commission, and most existing proposals to reform the EU fiscal rules aim to keep it. However, the EB is not a substitute for the structural balance, not only because it requires the later as an input, but also because the EB calculation demands some of the unobservable variables heavily criticised in the structural balance. The EB indicator is quite complex and not suitable for the use at national level by the Independent Fiscal Institutions – that monitor compliance with national fiscal rules – as it relies on the European Commission’s data inputs and judgement not available in real-time. This paper argues for more transparency and for a simplification of this indicator to reduce the reliance on non-observable variables. Length: 24 pages Creation-Date: 2020-12 File-URL: https://www.cfp.pt/en/publications/other-publications/the-expenditure-benchmark-complex-and-unsuitable-for-independent-fiscal-institutions File-Format: text/html File-Function: First version, 2020 Number: 02/2020 Classification-JEL: E61; E02; E62; H50; H61 Keywords: Expenditure benchmark; Independent Fiscal Institutions; EU fiscal rules; Stability and Growth Pact Handle: RePEc:alf:opaper:2020-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Luis Cracel Viana Author-Name-First: Luis Author-Name-Last: C. Viana Author-Name: Luis Gomes Centeno Author-Name-First: Luis Author-Name-Last: G. Centeno Title: Contracts with State Owned Enterprises in the National Health System Abstract: In this occasional document, the authors show that the National Health Service (NHS) management, despite using some of the tools considered state-of-the-art in the sector, is hampered by the increasing complexity of the planning system. More than half of the amount of the expected transfer provided by the State Budget (OE) to the NHS is intended for the programme contracts process with state owned enterprises integrated into the NHS. Contracts do not, however, make a correct correspondence between contracted services and financial needs, considering, for example, expected losses as a source of financing. Thus, as in the budget preparation phase itself a negative net result (a deficit) is expected, the cyclical need for discretionary financial injections by the Ministry of Finance (MF) is structural, promoting hospital management discredit and unaccountability. Length: 51 pages Creation-Date: 2019-12 File-URL: https://www.cfp.pt/en/publications/other-publications/contracts-with-state-owned-enterprises-in-the-national-health-system File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2019 Number: 02/2019 Note: This publication is only available in Portuguese. Handle: RePEc:alf:opaper:2019-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Teodora Cardoso Author-Name-First: Teodora Author-Name-Last: Cardoso Title: Social Security financing: equity and sustainability issues Abstract: This occasional paper is the result of Teodora Cardoso's participation in the conference "The Public Capitalization of Portuguese Social Security: Position and Perspectives", organized by IDEFF at the Faculty of Law of Lisbon, on 19 October 2018. Over the decades, public finance management in Portugal has been focused on defining annually the level of public expenditure and the amount of revenue needed to finance it, including the level of taxes and the use of credit. The State financed like this extended its powers and took responsibility for granting of an important set of rights. The rights to social protection and universal access to health care have assumed an increasing weight in the allocation of public expenditures and, consequently, in the amount of revenues that they absorb in each year. More importantly, the guarantee of these rights is characterized by a dynamic of its own, different - sometimes even opposite to - the cyclical evolution of the economy, which, to a large extent, depends on the level of revenues that the State collects each year. Length: 30 pages Creation-Date: 2019-01 File-URL: https://www.cfp.pt/uploads/publicacoes_ficheiros/cfp-po-1-2019-financiamento-da-seguranca-social1.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2019 Number: 01/2019 Handle: RePEc:alf:opaper:2019-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Gisele Teixeira Braun Author-Name-First: Gisele Author-Name-Last: T. Braun Author-Name: Luis Gomes Centeno Author-Name-First: Luis Author-Name-Last: G. Centeno Title: Health Systems Abstract: This occasional paper describes the main elements of a health system. It also compares the Portuguese health system to the remaining ones in the OECD and details the current model in Portugal. Portugal has a mixed health system, in which residents have an automatic protection under the responsibility of the State and may voluntarily contract additional protection through public or private health insurance companies. Length: 28 pages Creation-Date: 2018-12 File-URL: https://www.cfp.pt/uploads/publicacoes_ficheiros/cfp-publicacao-ocasional-1-20181.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2018 Number: 01/2018 Handle: RePEc:alf:opaper:2018-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Teodora Cardoso Author-Name-First: Teodora Author-Name-Last: Cardoso Title: Fiscal Management in Portugal: aspirations in search of solutions Abstract: In this text, the President of the CFP seeks to briefly describe the characteristics and evolution of the budgetary process in Portugal since 1974, as well as its implications for the management capacity and control of public accounts and, ultimately, for the social well-being and development of the economy. In addition to presenting a summary of the problems that have characterized fiscal management in Portugal, this text also indicates priority areas for its solution. Length: 11 pages Creation-Date: 2017-09 File-URL: https://www.cfp.pt/uploads/publicacoes_ficheiros/cfp-publicacao-ocasional-4-2017-a-gestao-orcamental-em-portugal.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-URL: https://www.cfp.pt/en/publications/other-publications/fiscal-management-in-portugal-aspirations-in-search-of-solutions- File-Format: text/html Number: 04/2017 Note: This publication is only available in Portuguese. Handle: RePEc:alf:opaper:2017-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Bruno Trancoso Rocha Author-Name-First: Bruno T. Author-Name-Last: da Rocha Title: Low productivity: resource allocation and obstacles to business growth in the Portuguese economy Abstract: This paper addresses the connection between the Portuguese business composition and the economy's aggregate productivity performance over the past 15-20 years. The paper presents evidence to the fact that the predominance in Portugal of companies of persistently reduced size and productivity translates into losses in aggregate productivity. The author suggests further arguments for the reason of the existing business fragmentation. Length: 17 pages Creation-Date: 2017-07 File-URL: https://www.cfp.pt/uploads/publicacoes_ficheiros/cfp-publicacao-ocasional-3-2017.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-URL: https://www.cfp.pt/en/publications/other-publications/low-productivity-resource-allocation-and-obstacles-to-business-growth-in-the-portuguese-economy- File-Format: text/html Number: 03/2017 Handle: RePEc:alf:opaper:2017-03 Note: This publication is only available in Portuguese. Article-Handle: RePEc:gmf:journl:y:2018:i:47:p:1:15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Teodora Cardoso Author-Name-First: Teodora Author-Name-Last: Cardoso Title: Fiscal Policy in the Economic Policy Framework Abstract: The paper “Fiscal Policy in the Economic Policy Framework”, by Teodora Cardoso, underlines the importance of the adjustment of the country's institutional framework and public policies to the objectives sought and of the fiscal framework’s reform as a starting point for the economic policy reform in Portugal. In this publication, the CFP President argues that the appropriate fiscal framework is an essential condition for the confidence of investors. Length: 16 pages Creation-Date: 2017-07 File-URL: https://www.cfp.pt/uploads/publicacoes_ficheiros/cfp-publicacao-ocasional-2-2017.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-URL: https://www.cfp.pt/en/publications/other-publications/fiscal-policy-in-the-economic-policy-framework- File-Format: text/html Number: 02/2017 Note: This publication is only available in Portuguese. Handle: RePEc:alf:opaper:2017-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Teodora Cardoso Author-Name-First: Teodora Author-Name-Last: Cardoso Title: Investment, Savings and Competitiveness: The Three Pillars of Growth Length: 10 pages Creation-Date: 2017-03 File-URL: https://www.cfp.pt/uploads/publicacoes_ficheiros/occasional-paper-1-2017.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2017 Number: 01/2017 Note: This publication is only available in Portuguese. Handle: RePEc:alf:opaper:2017-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Rui Nuno Baleiras Title: Territory and economic development: institutional flaws Abstract: This is a policy paper on the contribution of Portuguese public policies to economic growth and development. Such contribution is mediated by space inasmuch as the effectiveness of public action hinges critically on how policies mobilise regional development drivers. These drivers come out of a digression on economic theory explanations for growth and development which also helps to realise that markets trigger contradictory outcomes and assure neither durable progress everywhere nor long-term real convergence. The international evidence on regional development policies tracked herein unveils two facts: governments may also fail and governments can improve their own performance. Translating lessons from scientific knowledge and international empirical evidence to Portugal allows us to identify a number of flaws in the Portuguese institutional architecture and to recommend solution avenues to make the economic development of Portuguese territories more inclusive and sustainable. These recommendations bet on place-based sectorally integrated approaches which go through a significant improvement in horizontal and vertical governance mechanisms, and the adoption of policy tools headed towards the internalisation of association economies between the three territorial layers of government and the regional development actors in civil society. Length: 55 pages Creation-Date: 2014-12 File-URL: https://www.cfp.pt/uploads/publicacoes_ficheiros/territory-and-economic-development.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2014 Number: 03/2014 Handle: RePEc:alf:opaper:2014-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Rui Nuno Baleiras Title: Towards predictability and sustainability of public finances: a commentary on 'Control of the Central Government Budget Outturn' Abstract: The Fridays of Reform Organising Committee have kindly asked me to comment on the talk given by Orlando Caliço in the session that took place on 4 April 2014, entitled "Control of the Central Government Budget Outturn". This essay was born from the notes that I made at the time and its analytical object is the main speaker’s presentation which is available on the event’s website—hereafter be referred to as Caliço (2014). The paper benefited from the normative principles put forward in the meantime by Cardoso (2014) to redesign the Portuguese budgetary process; it is aligned with such framework and the suggestions below complement those proposed by the Chair of the Portuguese Public Finance Council. Length: 20 pages Creation-Date: 2014-10 File-URL: https://www.cfp.pt/uploads/publicacoes_ficheiros/occasional-paper-no-2-2014.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2014 Number: 02/2014 Handle: RePEc:alf:opaper:2014-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Teodora Cardoso Author-Name-First: Teodora Author-Name-Last: Cardoso Title: To better manage Portuguese common resources — the budgetary procedure reform Abstract: The experience of the crisis that the country has undergone requires the definition of a new paradigm that in the future guarantees the stability and budgetary sustainability, basic conditions to assure the national sovereignty and the confidence of the citizens in the public policies. The CFP understands that the reform of the budget process is an essential basis for the adjustment necessary for the economy to re-enter a stable and sustained growth phase. Length: 25 pages Creation-Date: 2014-09 File-URL: https://www.cfp.pt/uploads/publicacoes_ficheiros/cfp-occasional-paper-no1-2014.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2014 Number: 01/2014 Note: This publication is only available in Portuguese. Handle: RePEc:alf:opaper:2014-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Manuela Paixao Author-Name: Rui Nuno Baleiras Title: Analysis of Debt Limits in the Regional and Local Finance Bills Abstract: The present document is part of the Portuguese Public Finance Council’s set of contributions to improve the political decision-making process concerning the reform of the budget framework of local and regional public subsectors. It focuses on the debt rule put forward by the subnational finance bills being discussed by the Parliament in 2013 (Bill No. 121/XII, on the Autonomous Regions Finance Law, and Bill No. 122/XII/2.ª, on the Local Finance Law). The paper gathers and reconciles information from various sources on the magnitude of the current subnational debt and runs a series of numerical simulation exercises. With its release, CFP offers the public an analysis of the impact of the debt limits under parliamentary discussion on the general government gross debt. Within the limitations of a retroactive application exercise, it points out the position each territory would have had in the 2009-2011 period in face of the numerical target defined in the bill. It also includes an exercise that evaluates the room available for the remaining public subsectors, under the 60% of GDP cap set in European legislation, in case regions and municipalities exhaust their legal indebtedness capacity defined in Bills 121 and 122. Length: 13 pages Creation-Date: 2013-04 File-URL: https://www.cfp.pt/uploads/publicacoes_ficheiros/occasional-paper-no12013.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2013 Number: 01/2013 Handle: RePEc:alf:opaper:2013-01