Projection History

Back to the future: A database of macroeconomic and fiscal projections for the Portuguese economy in the 21st century

The Portuguese Public Finance Council provides a repository with the macroeconomic and fiscal projections for the Portuguese economy, published by the six main national and international institutions, in the following documents:

• Banco de Portugal: Economic bulletins
• European Commission: Spring and Autumn projections; Winter projections between 2013 and 2017.
• Portuguese Public Finance Council: Reports "Public Finances: Position and Constraints" and "Economic and Fiscal Outlook".
• Internacional Monetary Fund: “World Economic Outlook” and Reports of the 
  Article IV missions.
• Ministry of Finance: Reports of the "Orçamento do Estado" and its amendments, "Programa de Estabilidade", "Documento de Estratégia Orçamental" and "Plano Orçamental-Estrutural Nacional de Médio Prazo", among others.
• Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development: “Economic Outlook”.

These projections cover a total of 16 macroeconomic and fiscal variables and include the macroeconomic scenarios published since 2000. In total, more than 350 macroeconomic scenarios are considered.

This repository is available in two formats:

• In Excel format, allowing an interactive exploration of the available data and the consultation of some related indicators in graphic format.

• In CSV format, more oriented towards scientific and academic research, facilitating the extraction of data and eventual import into the main  statistical and econometric softwares.

This database will be updated regularly, as these institutions publish updated macroeconomic scenarios for the Portuguese economy. An example of its use can be found in this blog article.

This database should be cited as 'Leal, Martins and Marujo (2024), "Back to the future: A database of macroeconomic and fiscal projections for the Portuguese economy in the 21st century", Portuguese Public Finance Council'.

These data are made available for personal or academic use, and their reproduction, redistribution, sale, republication, or any other use is not allowed without quoting the Portuguese Public Finance Council as the source of the information.

Date of last update: 13/12/2024