Carlos Marinheiro highlights challenges in analysing Public Finances at Banco de Portugal Session

Carlos Marinheiro, Head of Staff at the Portuguese Public Finance Council (CFP), was the guest speaker at the session titled “Challenges in Analysing Public Finances in Portugal”, held as part of the Banco de Portugal’s Economic Forum on 27 June.

The event brought together academics, economic analysts, and representatives from both public and private institutions. It was based on the “Public Finance Analysis and Projections” section of the Banco de Portugal’s June 2025 Economic Bulletin.

In his presentation, Carlos Marinheiro addressed the main challenges in forecasting and analysing national public finances. Among the issues he highlighted were the lack of systematic quantification (both ex-ante and ex-post) of the cost of policy measures, which should be carried out by the public administration and subject to independent review to assess methodological soundness and conclusions. He also pointed to the absence of a genuine multi-annual programming of overall public expenditure, particularly in public investment.

The CFP official further emphasised the complexity of the European fiscal framework, which is based on unobservable variables, making both technical analysis and public communication more difficult. He argued that Portugal should adopt a national fiscal framework tailored to its specific context, rather than merely replicating the European model. He concluded by calling for greater budgetary transparency, the promotion of independent analyses, and improved communication with citizens and the media.

Date of last update: 27/06/2025