Introducing the Portuguese Macro-Fiscal (PMF) model: A framework for projecting the Portuguese Economy

The Portuguese Public Finance Council (CFP) publishes the working paper “Introducing the Portuguese Macro-Fiscal (PMF) model: The Framework for Projecting the Portuguese Economy”, by Nuno Gonçalves and André Moreira.

In this paper the authors present the current version of the quarterly macroeconomic and budgetary model for Portugal, the central tool used by the CFP to produce its medium-term macroeconomic projections.

On the macro side, the model largely follows the specifications developed by several Eurosystem central banks adapted to the Portuguese case. The key extension of this framework, reflecting the CFP’s mission, was the inclusion of a complete and more disaggregated budget block.

In this working paper the structure and specification of the model are summarily discussed and their properties are portrayed by the simulation of shocks.

Date of last update: 06/03/2018