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The second CFP’s Occasional Paper of 2022, by Nuno Gonçalves, makes a first study of CFP macroeconomic projections regarding forecasting performance and its optimal properties – unbiased, serially uncorrelated, efficient and with the variance of the deviations not increasing as the projection horizon decreases.
Such macroeconomic projections provide an independent contribute for the public debate on economic developments and fiscal policy in Portugal, being an important input for the endorsement of macroeconomic forecasts underlying budgetary programming documents. The budgetary projections underlying these documents must be based on the most probable macroeconomic scenario or on a more prudent one, according to the legal requirements of the Budgetary Framework Law and of the Stability and Growth Pact. Naturally, the CFP projections are also following the same principles, and so it is crucial to assess whether they are the “most probable” or “more prudent”.
In this study, the author concludes that CFP projections are prudent and fulfil most of the optimal properties, proving to be a reliable contribute to policy debate. The findings also show that CFP projection errors are in line with those of other institutions that develop scenarios under the no policy change assumption.
Although additional observations are necessary to take more robust conclusions, the strengths and weaknesses identified through this study provide a good starting point to improve the macro modelling and forecasting procedure at the CFP.
Date of last update: 06/04/2022
