The Opinion focuses on the macroeconomic forecasts underlying the draft budgetary plan for 2020 submitted by the Ministry of Finance to the European Commission. According to the law, “the budget projections underlying the budgetary programming documents shall be based on the most likely macroeconomic scenario or on a more prudent scenario”.
After analysing the information, the CFP issues a qualified endorsement to the estimates and forecasts presented in that document. The decision is based essentially on two aspects:
- The absence of comparable macroeconomic forecasts produced by other institutions makes it difficult to qualify for their probability; and
- The elements set out in this opinion on the performance of demand components, in particular exports and imports in 2020, do not allow to consider the scenario presented as prudent, given the high downside risks pending on the forecasted acceleration of economic activity in 2020.