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The Portuguese Council of Public Finance (CFP) started in 2015 the regular production of medium-term forecasts on the state of the economy and public finances in Portugal. The main purpose of this collection is to identify the constraints that are placed on fiscal policy in a medium-term perspective. The CFP released its first projection exercise for the period 2016-2020 in March this year in order to be taken into account in the discussion of the Stability Programme 2016/2020. About a month from the presentation of the Draft State Budget for 2017 (DSB/2017), this prospective exercise is now updated.


The projection presented is not intended to correspond to a forecast for the five-year period in question (2016 to 2020), but rather to a projection of medium-term trends in the absence of fiscal policy measures to replace or complement measures already adopted. It thus translates into a scenario of invariant policies, which seeks to provide most economic agents with information on the room for maneuver in fiscal policy for 2017 and beyond.

Position and Constraints . Report nº 8/2016 . 15 September 2016