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This Report presents the macroeconomic projections prepared by the Public Finance Council (CFP) for the period 2017 to 2021. The CFP, like other institutions that independently make projections on economic variables, bases its analysis on available information considering, in addition to the observed evolution, the policy measures that have already been adopted or specified in sufficient detail to be incorporated in the quantification exercises.

 

Thus, the base scenario presented for the five-year period is based on the hypothesis of invariant policies, described in detail in the report. In order to prepare this scenario, the CFP has used, in addition to its own models, the projections available at the macroeconomic level, namely those published by international institutions, the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Portugal for the Portuguese economy. The effects of the measures considered to be specified for the 2017-2021 period in the Stability Program 2017-2021 (SP/2017) and 2017 in the State Budget Proposal Report (DSB/2017), as well as the expected impacts in 2017 and in subsequent years resulting from measures implemented in previous years.

Position and Constraints . Report nº 7/2017 . 28 September 2017