This report updates the macroeconomic and fiscal projections made by the Portuguese Public Finance Council (CFP) for 2018-2022 period, published in March this year.
The analysis here presented is based on the information available at the moment, considering the observed evolution and the policy measures already adopted or specified with sufficient detail so that they can be included in the quantification exercise.
The baseline scenario presented for the five-year period is based on the invariant policies hypothesis. The CFP uses its own models and the available macroeconomic projections for the Portuguese economy produced by the international institutions, by the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Portugal.
For 2018 the impact of the measures considered specified in the State Budget Report for 2018 was included. For the period until 2022, it was considered the Stability Program 2018-2022, as well as the expected impacts for 2018 and the following years resulting from the measures adopted in previous years.