Macroeconomic forecasts underlying the Draft Stability Programme 2023-2027

The Portuguese Public Finance Council (CFP) today publishes its Opinion on the macroeconomic forecasts underlying the Stability Programme 2023-2027 (SP/2023), an opinion prepared in accordance with the provisions of Article 8 of the Budgetary Framework Law (Law no. 151/2015, of 11 September, as amended).

Based on the available information, the CFP endorses the macroeconomic estimates and forecasts presented by the Ministry of Finance.

The macroeconomic scenario included in the SP/2023 is broadly in line with the most recent forecasts and projections known for the Portuguese economy for the period 2023-2027. Therefore, based on the information available at the cut-off date of this Opinion, it is a probable scenario for the development of the Portuguese economy over the next five years, and the risks are predominantly of an external nature to the Portuguese economy.

The main risks associated to the scenario underlying the SP/2023 hang downwardly on economic activity growth and upwardly on inflation, especially for 2023, in which the projection for economic activity growth is at the upper limit of the projections of the other institutions considered and in which the projection for the growth rate of the HICP is lower.

Date of last update: 17/04/2023