The Portuguese Public Finance Council (CFP) Report analyses the 2015 State Budget, the first to be drafted since the end of the Economic and Financial Assistance Programme, although the Government must follow the public finance adjustment path begun under the Programme and defined in the Fiscal Strategy Documents. The Council’s analysis of the 2015 Draft SB (DSB/2015) focuses on its consistency with those documents.
Under the new European rules the CFP issued an opinion on the macroeconomic scenario underlying the DSB/2015, in which it referred that a number of recent indicators suggest that the official forecasts may have to be revised downwards, especially as a result of recent developments in the international framework. The significant change in the components of the forecast economic growth is particularly relevant. This gives rise to an increase in private consumption, to a lesser contraction in public consumption, to a decline in the relative weight of gross fixed capital formation and to a smaller external current surplus — a series of variations that do not contribute to the sustainability of economic growth and national public finances.